Market Recap 8/15

Welcome back to another weekly Friday Edition of OffTheTicker! Lots of things to recap this week. We’re excited to walk you through the key market news and developments from the past few days. More importantly, we’ll break down what these events mean—and share how we’re adjusting our investments in response.

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Trump Opens the Door to Crypto and Alternative Investments in 401(k) Plans

Did you notice that Bitcoin just hit an all-time high this week. It is because on August 7, 2025, President Donald Trump signed an executive order titled Democratizing Access for 401(k) Investors, directing federal agencies—most notably the Department of Labor and the SEC—to loosen restrictions under ERISA. The move paves the way for the inclusion of alternative investments—such as cryptocurrencies, private equity, real estate, infrastructure projects, and digital assets in actively managed vehicles—in employer-sponsored defined contribution plans. While supporters hail it as a democratizing step that grants everyday retirement savers access to asset classes previously reserved for institutional or high-net-worth investors, it also marks a significant departure from the traditionally low-risk, transparent nature of retirement portfolios.

What It Means for Investors: Opportunity Meets Caution

If implemented, this policy shift could usher in potentially higher returns and enhanced diversification options for 90 million Americans managing nearly $9 trillion in 401(k) savings. However, these alternative assets often come with drawbacks such as limited liquidity, high fee structures (e.g., the “2 and 20” model common in private equity), and valuation opacity—all of which could challenge the long-term stability of retirement savings. Implementation remains in its early stages—regulators must craft new guidance, and major retirement providers like Fidelity and Vanguard may take months or even years to roll out suitable products. This is a major development, and it aligns perfectly with our long-standing view that investors should maintain some exposure to crypto. With $9 trillion sitting in 401(k) plans, we believe this change could be a powerful move for Bitcoin’s continued growth.

PPI Numbers Released 8/14

The U.S. Producer Price Index for Final Demand rose 0.9% in July, marking the largest monthly increase since June 2022—far surpassing the 0.2% gain economists had expected Reuters The Daily Beast . On a year‑over‑year basis, PPI climbed 3.3%, its strongest 12‑month advance since February.

Dissecting the data further, the bulk of the monthly increase was driven by services, especially inflated trade margins and services categories like machinery and equipment wholesaling—while goods prices also rose, led by fresh and dry vegetables and food-related categories Bureau of Labor Statistics .

This unexpectedly large rise in wholesale prices is fueling concerns about inflationary pressure trickling down to consumers. Analysts warn that stubborn PPI figures could delay any potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, tempering earlier optimism Reuters New York Post . Markets initially reacted with a dip—U.S. stock futures slipped and Treasury yields lifted, while the dollar strengthened—but by day’s end, major indexes such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rebounded, buoyed by large-cap technology and media stocks with strong fundamentals MarketWatch.

How we are trading around this report:

Obviously the numbers announced Thursday morning were not good for PPI, but we are seeing a window of opportunity begin to open up around trading crypto currency as well as one of our favorite stocks. In the short term, inflation rising means the overall consumer sentiment shifting towards saving money and throwing money into safe assets like Gold, or just keeping their money in a high yield savings account.

The first fork in our thesis comes for the possible upside for SOFI. As we have talked about in previous newsletters and our beginners guide to investing how high yield savings accounts are great wealth building tools in times of high interest rates. With the fed expected to keep interest rates where they are over the coming months due to this recent release of numbers, many more investors may flock to high yield savings accounts like SOFI. As we do understand that most times during interest rate increases/staying steady the financial sector takes a hit, we believe that SOFI has strategically positioned themselves towards being a safe haven for HYSA as well as education loans, which are not going anywhere anytime soon with Trump in office.

The second fork in this thesis comes with Bitcoin becoming an even stronger investment (although down as of the time of this writing since the news). Although short term Bitcoin will see a hit like the broader markets, the overall thesis many including us have on Bitcoin is that it is a long term hedge against the weakening of the US dollar. As we have seen since 1970 when the dollar was stripped of its gold backing, the weakening of the US dollar is only going to continue over time. Bitcoin offers a global currency that will not weaken over time like the dollar. We are currently investing in Bitcoin and SOFI and believe that it is right to do your own due diligence and create your own investment thesis before investing.

Warren Buffet Buys UNH

Over the past couple of months, UnitedHealth Group (UNH) stock has seen a steep decline, largely driven by disappointing earnings, elevated medical costs, and regulatory pressures. As of mid‑August, UNH stock trades in the low‑to‑mid $270s, down approximately 35%–37% over the past three months, and down nearly 50% year‑to‑date and over the past 12 months. This drop marks a sharp contrast from prior years when the company had been a steady performer in the healthcare sector.

Several key developments fueled the downturn. In late July, UnitedHealth reported second‑quarter earnings that missed Wall Street expectations, adjusted EPS of $4.08 vs. the $4.48 consensus, and revenue of $111.6 billion, slightly below estimates. Additionally, the company slashed its full‑year adjusted EPS guidance to at least $16, a big cut from prior forecasts in the $26–$30 range, citing “unprecedented medical cost trends,” especially in its Medicare Advantage and Medicaid businesses.

After the market closed on Thursday it was revealed that Warren Buffets Berkshire Hathaway held stake in United Health Care on their most recent 13F filing. The position is valued at 5 Billion Dollars. The stock is soaring over 7% after hours after the news broke. Major investor David Tepper also reportedly bought 2.2 Billion of UNH stock.

Our Thesis:

There have been some recent stock purchases that have sounded the alarm for us in terms of possibly reaching the bottom of UNH. In mid-May, several senior insiders at UnitedHealth made significant purchases, CEO Stephen J. Hemsley bought 86,700 shares on May 16 at an average price of $288.57, investing approximately $25 million. CFO John F. Rex acquired 17,175 shares on the same day at $291.12, totaling about $5 million. Additionally, three independent board directors, Kristen Gil (3,700 shares at $271.17), Timothy P. Flynn (1,533 shares at $320.80), and John H. Noseworthy (300 shares at $312.16) also purchased shares. Back in our newsletter on July 25th we stated that “It’s hard to bet against a company that’s deeply embedded in the U.S. healthcare system, especially one with the scale and infrastructure of UNH. Yes, there are legitimate concerns: DOJ scrutiny, possible Medicare/Medicaid reimbursement pressure, and a tough media spotlight. But we also believe “sick people aren’t going anywhere,” and healthcare demand will remain resilient—even amid sector pressure.” We have been continuing to invest into UNH and may begin to take some profit after this news.

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Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. The opinions expressed are based on publicly available information as of August 15, 2025, and reflect the author’s personal views at that time. Investing in stocks, including UNH, Bitcoin, Gold, SOFI, and all others mentioned within involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author and publisher are not responsible for any losses or damages arising from the use of this information.