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- Market Recap 7/25
Market Recap 7/25
UNH in deep water again, Nvidia keeps seeing positive signals, and Google hitting back at ChatGPT
Welcome back to another weekly Friday Edition of OffTheTicker! We’re excited to walk you through the key market news and developments from the past few days. More importantly, we’ll break down what these events mean—and share how we’re adjusting our investments in response.
We also wanted to bring to everyone’s attention our referral program at the bottom of the page. For just two referrals to your friends and family you will receive an email that grants you access to our LIVE STOCK TRACKER, where we will be logging every stock that we will be talking about on this newsletter, which will allow you to stay up to date and never miss a beat even during busy work weeks.
UNH In Trouble?
UnitedHealth has publicly confirmed that it is under both criminal and civil investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice focused on its Medicare Advantage billing practices, particularly how diagnoses are documented to increase government reimbursements. The company proactively reached out to the DOJ and stated in its SEC filing that it is now fully cooperating with the formal requests, while affirming its confidence in the integrity of its compliance and internal practices. It has also launched third‑party reviews of risk coding, managed care, and pharmacy processes. As a result of this announcement, UnitedHealth shares dropped roughly 3–4%, contributing to a year‑to‑date stock decline of over 40–50%, making it one of the poorest performers on the Dow and S&P 500 in 2025.
As of July 2025, UnitedHealth’s trailing P/E ratio is 11.7, off sharply from its historical range and recent mid‑30s levels. In comparison, companies such as Cigna (CI) and Humana (HUM) currently trade in the 16s. The industry average P/E for healthcare plans or broader healthcare firms is around 16–20×, meaning UnitedHealth is currently valued at a noticeable discount to both its direct peers and the sector at large.
What we still love about UNH: The company remains the largest health insurer in the U.S. with insurance (UnitedHealthcare) and healthcare services (Optum), which have been the companies bread and butter. Its Optum segment continues to deliver strong performance, driven by growing demand for value-based care and data-driven health solutions and is the part of the business that we think could carry the company back from the depths.

How we are trading UNH: It’s hard to bet against a company that’s deeply embedded in the U.S. healthcare system, especially one with the scale and infrastructure of UNH. Yes, there are legitimate concerns: DOJ scrutiny, possible Medicare/Medicaid reimbursement pressure, and a tough media spotlight. But we also believe “sick people aren’t going anywhere,” and healthcare demand will remain resilient—even amid sector pressure.
We initiated a position around $280 this week. Another plus with this stock is the dividends that have been very consistent. With the S&P 500 trading at ~20x earnings—near its historical high of 24x—we're focused on value opportunities, and UNH fits that bill. While we generally believe healthcare stocks are unlikely to outperform in a tech-led, AI-driven bull market, diversification matters, especially as we approach what could be a volatile August–September window.
Trump on NVIDIA: A Change of Heart at the AI Summit
During his “AI Action Plan” summit in Washington, D.C., former President Donald Trump revealed that he initially considered breaking up Nvidia, the dominant force in AI chipmaking, over concerns about its market power. Trump admitted he was unfamiliar with the company at first, asking, “Who the hell is he? What’s his name?... Nvidia,” when advisors raised the topic. However, after learning more about the scale and complexity of Nvidia’s operations, he backed away from the idea. Advisors explained that even if a new competitor tried to enter the market today, it could take nearly a decade just to catch up with Nvidia’s lead. Trump later met with CEO Jensen Huang and shifted from skepticism to praise, stating, “What a job you’ve done.”
This shift in tone came alongside broader AI policy announcements. Trump introduced a 90-point “AI Action Plan” aimed at cementing U.S. dominance in the AI sector. The agenda includes expediting approvals for AI-related infrastructure, opposing state-level AI regulations, and crucially, reversing export restrictions on Nvidia’s H20 chips to China. That move reopens a significant revenue stream and reflects a broader strategy of encouraging American innovation while managing global tech influence.
Following the summit, Nvidia shares rose by more than 1.3%, fueled not only by the positive policy developments but also by Google’s announcement of increased capital expenditures on AI infrastructure—another bullish signal for the chip giant. Analysts say Trump’s softened regulatory stance and supportive policy environment could provide strong tailwinds for Nvidia, AMD, and other players in the AI hardware ecosystem. The combination of eased regulatory risk, renewed export access, and surging demand from enterprise and hyperscale AI deployment further cements Nvidia’s strategic advantage.
How we are trading NVIDA: We view this as a major vote of confidence in Nvidia’s leadership and a sign that federal AI policy may shift toward supporting—rather than restricting—leading U.S. innovators. While the tech sector continues to ride the AI boom, this kind of public support from political leaders adds fuel to the fire. We remain bullish on Nvidia, and we’re closely watching how this alignment between government and private sector leadership could shape the next leg of the AI race.
Google Strong Q2 Results
Google’s Strong Q2 Results Highlight AI-Led Growth and Big Spending
Alphabet, the parent company of Google, delivered strong second-quarter 2025 earnings, reporting $96.4 billion in revenue, a 14% year-over-year increase, and earnings per share of $2.31—up 22% from Q2 2024. Both figures beat analyst expectations. The Google Services segment, which includes Search, YouTube ads, and subscriptions, brought in $82.5 billion in revenue, with YouTube ads alone contributing around $9.8 billion. Search revenue climbed 11–12%, boosted by AI-powered features like AI Overviews and AI Mode, which now reach billions of users monthly. Meanwhile, Google Cloud continued its impressive growth, up 32% to $13.6 billion, thanks to rising demand from enterprise clients—including OpenAI.
However, not everything was celebrated on Wall Street. Alphabet raised its capital expenditures forecast for 2025 to $85 billion—up $10 billion from prior expectations—as the company builds out its AI infrastructure, including data centers and advanced chips. This jump in spending initially rattled investors, causing a brief dip in share price, but sentiment recovered in after-hours trading after the company emphasized strong AI momentum across its platforms.
CEO Sundar Pichai described the quarter as a “standout,” highlighting how AI is now woven into nearly every part of the business—from core products like Search and YouTube to newer offerings such as Chrome, Workspace, and Google Vids. Alphabet also noted significant traction with its Gemini 2.5 AI models, which now support 450 million monthly users on the Gemini app and millions of developers worldwide.
Still, despite the strong top-line growth, investors remain cautious due to the rising capital intensity and ongoing legal battles, particularly the DOJ’s antitrust case that could impact Google’s dominance in browser and search.
How we are trading Google:
We view these Q2 results as a strong signal that Google remains a frontrunner in the AI race, with impressive revenue growth, accelerating adoption of its AI tools, and continued dominance in both Search and Cloud. As we predicted in our Sunday edition, Google exceeded earnings expectations—and we positioned accordingly by buying earlier this week. We remain bullish on Alphabet moving forward and plan to add to our position if any meaningful dips occur.
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.