What to Expect this Week: 8/4

Welcome!

Hope you all had a great weekend! Welcome to all of our new subscribers joining us here at @OfftheTicker. As we do at the start of every week, we’ll spotlight a few companies with earnings on the horizon, recap some key developments or milestones from the past few months, and wrap up with our perspective on how we’re approaching the stock — including whether we see it as a potential buy.

Weekly Earnings Spotlight: August 4-8th, 2025

Monday August 4th: Palantir Technologies (PLTR), Hims and Hers (HIMS), onsemi (ON)

Tuesday August 5th: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Super Micro Computer (SMCI), Pfizer (PFE)

Wednesday August 6th: McDonald’s (MCD), Uber Technologies (UBER), Walt Disney (DIS)

Thursday August 7th: Eli Lilly (LLY), Block (SQ), Toyota (TM), Block (SQ)

Friday August 8th: Under Armour (UAA), Wendy’s (WEN), AMC Networks (AMCX)

🏢 Palantir Technologies (PLTR)

Recent Highlights:

Palantir Technologies enters its Q2 2025 earnings report on Monday, August 4 riding strong momentum from prior quarters. Analysts expect revenue between $934–938 million, up nearly 39% year-over-year, and EPS of around $0.14, a jump of more than 50% from last year. Palantir’s growth is fueled by strength in both government and commercial segments. The company recently secured a major U.S. Army enterprise agreement, consolidating roughly 75 smaller contracts into a potential $10 billion, decade-long deal—expected to boost annual Army revenue from about $400 million to $600 million within two years. Commercial adoption of its AI Platform (AIP) remains robust, with total contract value bookings up 239% year-over-year to $810 million, pushing its annual commercial run rate over $1 billion and solidifying its position as a key enterprise AI provider.

Financial Guidance:

Palantir continues to post strong free cash flow margins—42% in Q1 2025—and touts a Rule of 40 score of 83%, signaling rare operational efficiency for a high-growth software company. Management is guiding for full-year 2025 revenue of nearly $3.9 billion, up 36% year-over-year, and plans continued investment in expanding its AI capabilities and global footprint. However, valuation remains stretched, with shares trading at roughly 96× sales and over 200× forward earnings, leaving very little room for missed expectations. Insider selling in recent months has drawn some scrutiny, but most analysts attribute it to diversification rather than a shift in confidence.

Stock Outlook:

Palantir really has been a juggernot this past year, up 105%. Palantir trades around $154, with analysts split on its near-term potential. The average price target sits near $107, reflecting skepticism about its rich valuation, while bullish firms like Piper Sandler see upside to $170, citing Palantir’s position as a “secular winner” in the AI revolution. With earnings approaching, investors will be focused on revenue growth, margin expansion, and guidance for the second half of 2025—particularly updates on the $10 billion Army deal and ongoing commercial adoption of AIP. We currently hold a position in Palantir but remain cautious, and expect a dip as the stock is trading at about 96× sales and 200× forward earnings. In the short term, even a slight earnings miss or weaker guidance could spark a pullback — which we would view as a buying opportunity.

🏢 Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

Recent Highlights:

AMD is gearing up to report its Q2 2025 earnings on August 5, with strong momentum coming from its recent performance and product pipeline. The company is expected to deliver revenue in the range of $7.1 billion to $7.7 billion, reflecting approximately 27% year-over-year growth, primarily driven by robust demand in its data center segment and continued strength in the client and gaming markets. Despite ongoing challenges, including U.S. export restrictions that are limiting chip shipments to China, AMD continues to innovate aggressively, particularly with its AI-focused GPUs such as the MI350 series, which are gaining traction in data centers and AI workloads. Its product launches and technology leadership have kept it competitive against major rivals like NVIDIA and Intel, helping to capture increasing market share in the high-growth AI and cloud infrastructure sectors.

Financial Guidance:

AMD’s guidance for Q2 2025 anticipates a non-GAAP gross margin of 43%, which factors in roughly $800 million in charges linked to inventory write-downs and reserves due to export restrictions. Excluding these charges, gross margins would approximate 54%, consistent with prior quarters. The company has also successfully completed a $6 billion share repurchase program, underscoring management’s confidence in AMD’s valuation and growth prospects. Free cash flow generation remains solid, and operating expenses reflect continued investment in R&D, particularly in next-generation chip architectures and AI-focused products. While export controls present near-term headwinds, AMD’s diversified revenue base and expanding presence in cloud, gaming, and embedded markets provide a strong foundation for sustainable growth.

Stock Outlook:

As of early August 2025, AMD trades at a forward P/E ratio of roughly 44, a premium compared to its historical averages but indicative of investor enthusiasm around its growth trajectory. Analyst consensus remains bullish, with the majority recommending a “Buy” or “Hold,” and price targets ranging from $100 to $155, reflecting optimism about AMD’s continued expansion in data center AI chips and gaming processors. However, risks remain, including geopolitical uncertainties, supply chain constraints, and competitive pressures from NVIDIA and Intel. Long-term investors are focused on AMD’s ability to navigate these challenges while maintaining strong revenue growth, improving margins, and capitalizing on the AI-driven semiconductor market boom. We love AMD and hold it as a long term stock in our portfolio. Any big dip in AMD we see as a buy as we like that the company did a $6 billion share repurchase and their continued advancement of their new GPUs that they released as they offer up to 3x performance improvement over the previous generation which compete directly with Nvidia.

🏢 The Walt Disney Company (DIS)

Recent Highlights:

Disney is preparing to report its fiscal Q3 2025 earnings on August 6, with analysts forecasting revenue of around $23.75 billion and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.47, representing roughly 6% year-over-year growth. The company’s Experiences segment—which includes theme parks, resorts, and cruise lines—continues to perform strongly, generating $8.9 billion in revenue and $2.5 billion in operating income in the previous quarter, reflecting increases of 6% and 9% respectively compared to the prior year. This growth is supported by robust attendance and higher spending per guest, driven by new attractions and strong consumer demand post-pandemic. Disney’s streaming platforms, including Disney+ and Hulu, have shown encouraging subscriber growth with Disney+ adding 1.4 million new subscribers in Q2, reaching over 180 million subscribers worldwide. The direct-to-consumer segment has improved its margins as well, with strategic content investments paying off amid a highly competitive streaming landscape.

Financial Guidance:

For the full fiscal year 2025, Disney has raised its adjusted EPS guidance to $5.75, up from the prior estimate of $5.44, reflecting confidence in continued operational strength across its diverse businesses. The company’s strong cash flow generation supports ongoing investments in content, park expansions, and technology upgrades. Analysts have responded positively to the outlook; Jefferies upgraded Disney to a “Buy” rating and set a price target of $144, citing the company’s ability to leverage its iconic brands across multiple platforms and revenue streams. UBS echoed this optimism, raising its target price to $138, and highlighting improved profitability in the direct-to-consumer business as well as solid fundamentals in the parks and resorts segment. Despite some macroeconomic concerns, including inflation and potential consumer discretionary pressures, Disney’s diversified portfolio provides a buffer against sector volatility.

Stock Outlook:

As of August 4, 2025, Disney shares are trading around $116.59, with consensus analyst price targets ranging from $128 to $144, indicating moderate upside potential. Market sentiment remains largely positive, with the majority of analysts recommending “Buy” or “Outperform” based on Disney’s strong brand equity, growth in streaming subscribers, and the rebound in its parks and experiences businesses. However, investors remain cautious about challenges such as intensified competition in streaming from both established players and emerging services, as well as macroeconomic uncertainties that could impact consumer spending. Overall, Disney’s well-rounded business model, strategic content pipeline, and ongoing park investments position it well for steady growth and value creation over the medium to long term. We do not currently hold any Disney shares and plan to remain on the sidelines. Although many analysts rate Disney as a buy, we believe there are more attractive investment opportunities elsewhere.

💊 Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)’

Recent Highlights:

Eli Lilly is preparing to report its Q2 2025 earnings on August 7, with analysts expecting revenue around $14.4 billion and earnings per share (EPS) between $5.40 and $5.53, representing robust year-over-year growth of approximately 30–42%. The company continues to benefit from strong demand for its obesity and diabetes treatments, especially its GLP-1 and GIP dual-agonist, Zepbound, which has shown an average weight loss of 20.2% in clinical trials — outperforming key competitors like Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy. Additionally, Lilly’s promising oral GLP-1 therapy, orforglipron, is anticipated to expand the company’s reach into the obesity and diabetes markets by offering a more convenient pill option compared to injectable therapies. Beyond weight management, Eli Lilly’s portfolio includes treatments in oncology, immunology, and neuroscience, contributing to a diversified revenue base and steady growth. The company’s investment in R&D continues to yield innovative drug candidates, reinforcing its leadership position in the pharmaceutical industry.

Financial Guidance:

For fiscal year 2025, Eli Lilly has provided optimistic guidance, with expected revenues between $58.0 billion and $61.0 billion and adjusted EPS in the range of $20.78 to $22.28. This guidance reflects Lilly’s confidence in its strong product lineup and market expansion efforts. Analysts overwhelmingly support the stock, with a consensus “Strong Buy” rating and an average 12-month price target near $1,016, indicating roughly 32% upside potential from current prices. Morgan Stanley has recently raised its price target to $1,135, citing continued robust demand for Lilly’s weight management drugs and the success of pipeline candidates entering late-stage trials. Additionally, the company’s disciplined capital allocation strategy, including share repurchases and dividends, bolsters shareholder value. Despite a challenging macroeconomic environment, Eli Lilly’s solid fundamentals and strong cash flow generation position it well to maintain growth and invest in future innovation.

Stock Outlook:

As of August 1, 2025, Eli Lilly’s stock is trading at approximately $762.33, down from its 52-week high near $972.53, but well above its 52-week low of $677.09. The stock’s valuation reflects investor optimism about Lilly’s leadership in the obesity and diabetes sectors, driven by innovative therapies that address large unmet medical needs. However, investors should keep an eye on regulatory scrutiny and increasing competition in the GLP-1 drug class, which could impact market share and pricing power. Furthermore, patent expirations and generic competition remain long-term risks. Overall, Eli Lilly’s diverse portfolio, expanding pipeline, and strategic execution continue to make it a compelling long-term growth story in the healthcare sector. We typically avoid investing in pharmaceutical companies, but Eli Lilly is a clear exception. Trading more than $200 below its all-time high, we view the stock as a buying opportunity, especially given its significant growth initiatives and major expansion plans for the future.

That’s a wrap for this week’s update! Thanks for following along, and keep an eye out for Wednesday’s newsletter — we’ll be spotlighting one of our favorite stocks to watch.

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Note: OffTheTicker provides general information and opinions on markets, stocks, and ETFs for educational purposes only. We are not financial advisers, and our content does not constitute personalized investment advice. Investing involves risks, including potential loss of principal. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. OffTheTicker is not responsible for any financial losses or decisions made based on our content. All data is sourced as of August 4th, 2025, and subject to change.

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