What to Expect this Week: 8/11

Welcome!

Hope you all had a great weekend! Welcome to all of our new subscribers joining us here at @OfftheTicker. As we do at the start of every week, we’ll spotlight a few companies with earnings on the horizon, recap some key developments or milestones from the past few months, and wrap up with our perspective on how we’re approaching the stock — including whether we see it as a potential buy.

Weekly Earnings Spotlight: August 11-15th, 2025

Monday August 11th: Oklo (OKLO), BigBearAI (BBAI)

Tuesday August 12th: Rigetti Computing (RGTI), CoreWeave (CRWV), CAVA (CAVA)

Wednesday August 13th: Cisco (CSCO), Equinox Gold (EQX)

Thursday August 14th: Applied Materials (AMAT), Birkenstock (BIRK)

Friday August 15th: Flowers Foods (FLO)

OKLO (OKLO)

Recent Highlights

Oklo, the advanced nuclear tech startup, has had a standout year highlighted by major government and strategic partnerships. A significant win came with a Department of Defense contract to deploy its Aurora microreactor at Eielson Air Force Base in Alaska, reinforcing both its defense and clean energy credentials. Concurrently, Oklo entered into a strategic alliance with Liberty Energy, creating integrated energy solutions for sectors like data centers, and another with Vertiv to channel reactor heat into AI data-center cooling systems—targeting a pilot at Idaho National Lab. These developments underscore Oklo’s innovation-driven momentum and its increasingly diversified application pipeline.

Financial Guidance

Oklo maintained its projection of first meaningful revenue in 2026 but provided additional clarity around its multi-year outlook. Management now expects to have 3–5 operational reactors online by 2028, with each unit capable of producing steady baseload power at competitive costs compared to fossil fuels. The company also revealed early-stage power purchase agreements (PPAs) with AI data center operators—contracts that could result in hundreds of millions in recurring revenue annually once fully ramped. Demand from AI infrastructure could accelerate deployment timelines, potentially pulling forward breakeven profitability by 1–2 years. Oklo emphasized its ability to scale production rapidly thanks to a modular reactor design and an established supply chain partnership network.

How we are trading around earnings

When we look at Oklo Inc., we see them as one of the emerging companies in the area of advanced nuclear energy and AI. Oklo Inc. is one of the few publicly micro-reactor developers. We know that AI is the future and Oklo will revolutionize the energy supply for data centers, industrial applications, and remote operations. They are still in the early stages of building out the company and making strategic partnerships. What makes us excited today is its alignment with the explosive energy needs of AI infrastructure.

The rise of AI has transformed the conversation around electricity demand in the United States and globally. Data centers powering AI models are projected to consume multiples more power than traditional cloud facilities, and utilities are already signaling potential grid strain. Nuclear energy offers the ideal solution, which is carbon-free, baseload, and highly reliable and Oklo’s modular approach allows deployment directly at or near data center campuses. This bypasses grid congestion issues and ensures predictable energy costs for operators. In a world where AI leaders like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google are racing to secure dedicated power sources for their AI clusters, Oklo’s proposition is uniquely attractive.

Oklo’s competitive edge lies in its fast reactor technology, which can operate on recycled nuclear fuel turning waste into a resource. This reduces fuel supply risks while positioning the company as a long-term, sustainable provider of energy. With AI data center power demand expected to grow at double-digit annual rates through the next decade, Oklo could see multi-year contracts at premium rates. We feel as though the market is undervaluing the potential for nuclear to become the most common use for powering AI workloads. If management executes on its build-out schedule and secures early AI-aligned power purchase agreements, the stock has significant upside over the next five to ten years that we believe will happen. We hold a small position on OKLO right now and will continue to invest for the long run. We are long on OKLO as an AI powerhouse for the future.

Rigetti Computing (RGTI)

Recent Highlights

The key reason Rigetti stands out to us is its focus on cloud-based quantum access and hybrid computing. Its platform, Forest, and later Quantum Cloud Services, allows researchers and enterprises to run quantum algorithms in combination with classical computing resources. This hybrid approach makes Rigetti’s systems more practical and accessible for real world applications today. Despite being smaller than giants like IBM or Google, Rigetti has made significant strides in scaling up its qubit systems and partnering with government and enterprise clients—securing contracts with the U.S. Department of Energy and DARPA and going public via a SPAC in 2022. These moves have cemented its role as a major player in the industry.

We believe that the next few years will be crucial for the adoption of quantum computing, which will be led by positive news regarding progress from the major players as well as how AI and Quantum computing could live simultaneously and work in unison. Where we think the key driver in this industry’s ability to catch wind and gain traction will come from is quantum computing's ability to perform complex calculations, which gives it certain speed and scale advantages for training machine learning and AI algorithms. Because of this, quantum computing excels at anomaly detection, which is crucial for efficient AI and machine learning processing. "There are certain problems in optimization and AI/ML, where classical computing algorithms look at data and see randomness while quantum algorithms can find patterns in what looks like random noise," said Scott Crowder, vice president of quantum adoption at IBM.

Financial Guidance

Rigetti’s share price currently sits around $15.76, reflecting a strong short‑term rally driven largely by investor excitement about quantum technology and its partnerships. The company shows a negative P/E ratio of roughly –14×, indicating that it remains unprofitable on an operational basis. In the trailing twelve months, Rigetti generated only $10.8 m in revenue and posted a net loss of about $201 m.

In the most recent quarter (Q1 2025), revenue dropped to $1.5 m, a 52% year over year decline, while operating expenses rose to $22.1 m, resulting in an operating loss of $21.6 m. For the upcoming earnings report (Q2 2025) Analysts expect a loss per share of approximately $0.05. Revenue Forecast: Revenue is projected to decline about 39% year-over-year, reaching around $1.96 million for the quarter.

How we are trading around earnings

While we do not believe that quantum computing should make up a large portion of anyone’s portfolio, we do hold a small position in the stock and will continue to trade around any positive news throughout the sector. We believe that the most important part of the earnings call this upcoming week will be forward guidance and any major announcements. We are not looking too deep into revenue in an industry that most likely has a lot of time to develop before it could see major real-world application from large tech companies. Recently competitor IonQ reported earnings and missed on revenue but what caught our eye recently was the major news about Amazons 36.7-million-dollar stake in the company. When major players like Amazon are getting involved in the industry, we believe that there is something to look forward to with the future of quantum computing. We hold a small share of Rigetti currently but will be eager to buy on any major revenue misses that see the stock plummet.

Applied Materials (AMAT)

Recent Highlights

Applied Materials has navigated a volatile semiconductor equipment market in 2025, marked by ongoing supply chain disruptions and cautious capital spending from chipmakers amid macroeconomic uncertainties. Despite these headwinds, AMAT has reported solid gains in emerging segments like advanced logic and display technologies. The company continues to benefit from strong demand for tools supporting next-generation semiconductor nodes, including 3nm and below, as chipmakers invest in AI and high-performance computing chips. Notably, Applied Materials recently expanded its footprint in the flexible display market through a partnership with a leading OLED manufacturer, signaling diversification beyond traditional silicon wafer processing.

Financial Guidance

Applied Materials posted Q2 2025 earnings with revenues slightly below consensus, reflecting cautious spending trends in the semiconductor sector. Revenues came in at approximately $5.8 billion, a modest decline year-over-year, but gross margins held steady at around 45%, supported by operational efficiencies and higher-margin product mixes. The company reaffirmed its full-year revenue guidance of $23–24 billion, anticipating a recovery in capital expenditures starting in mid-2026 as AI-driven chip demand accelerates. Free cash flow remains robust, enabling continued investment in R&D and share repurchase programs. However, management highlighted ongoing risks including geopolitical tensions, potential inflationary pressures on materials costs, and persistent supply chain constraints.

Stock Outlook

We don’t think semiconductor equipment stocks like Applied Materials (AMAT) should dominate anyone’s portfolio, but we do hold a modest position and plan to stay active around any positive sector developments. The upcoming earnings call will be especially important for the forward-looking guidance and any big updates on customer demand or new tech breakthroughs. Given how cyclical this industry is, we’re less concerned about short-term revenue swings and more focused on the long-term growth driven by AI, advanced computing, and next-gen chip manufacturing. Recently, a competitor reported disappointing numbers, but their ongoing investments in critical tech reaffirm that innovation is still front and center. When industry leaders like AMAT keep pushing the status quo, it signals a strong runway ahead. We’ll be watching closely for any dips to add more shares if the stock pulls back on temporary market jitters.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. The opinions expressed are based on publicly available information as of August 9, 2025, and reflect the author’s personal views at that time. Investing in stocks, including OKLO, Rigetti, and Applied Materials involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author and publisher are not responsible for any losses or damages arising from the use of this information.

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