What the Expect this Week 8/18

Welcome!

Hope you all had a great weekend! Welcome to all 50 new subscribers this past week joining us here at @OfftheTicker. As we do at the start of every week, we’ll spotlight a few companies with earnings on the horizon, recap some key developments or milestones from the past few months, and wrap up with our perspective on how we’re approaching the stock, including whether we see it as a potential buy. This week we are breaking down 2 stocks that we believe it is important to trade around. One positive and one negative.

Weekly Earnings Spotlight: August 18-22nd, 2025

Monday August 18th: Palo Alto Networks (PANW)

Tuesday August 19th: Home Depot (HD)

Wednesday August 20th: Estee Lauder (EL)

Thursday August 21st: Walmart (WMT)

Friday August 22nd: BJ’s (BJ)

Palo Alto Networks (PANW)

Recent Highlights:

Palo Alto Networks is set to release its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings on Monday, August 18. Analysts anticipate revenue of approximately $2.49–2.51 billion (reflecting ~14–15% year-over-year growth) and non-GAAP EPS around $0.88–$0.89. The company continues to leverage its "platformization" strategy, consolidating multiple offerings under unified Prisma and Cortex platforms—with strong demand for AI-driven tools like Cortex XSIAM, which tripled its bookings year-over-year in Q3 and exceeded $1 billion despite being only three years old. The upcoming earnings call will also likely spotlight integration progress around the $25 billion CyberArk acquisition and whether it’s driving renewed identity-security traction.

Financial Guidance:

Management's latest full-year fiscal 2025 guidance calls for revenue of $9.14–9.19 billion, a non-GAAP operating margin near ~28–28.5%, and free cash flow margins of 37–38%. Q2 and Q3 each posted around $2.3 billion in revenue, establishing a strong foundation for the Q4 target . Institutional appetite remains healthy—funds like CalPERS recently added over a million shares, highlighting confidence from large investors. Analyst sentiment remains favorable: Piper Sandler just upgraded PANW to “Overweight” with a $225 target, while Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated its Overweight rating at $223—citing robust deal activity and long-term M&A synergy from platformization.

Stock Outlook:

While the whole market has been surging lately PANW has been slower to climb. This is why we think PANW is at good levels to buy. PANW has surged approximately 38% year-to-date, and is currently trading near $175, down from its recent 52-week high of ~$210. Analyst price targets range significantly: the consensus hovers around $210–$211 (≈20 % upside), while more aggressive forecasts reach $225 or higher based on continued platform adoption and AI integration. We agree more with the $200 range within the next year. We see their AI integration a big part of what will drive them forward. Still heading into earnings, the market will closely watch Q4 revenue, EPS clarity, CyberArk integration commentary, and FY26 outlook.

Estee Lauder (EL)

Recent Highlights:

Estée Lauder just reported a 7% year-over-year increase in Q4 revenue, reaching $3.87 billion. This growth was fueled by a remarkable 32% surge in EMEA, even as the Asia-Pacific region saw a 7% decline. The company’s cost discipline played a crucial role in achieving these results.

Under new CEO Stéphane de La Faverie, Estée Lauder is launching “Beauty Reimagined,” a bold pivot toward digital-first and AI-powered initiatives. The strategy includes blending digital and physical experiences, leveraging AI for personalized recommendations and trend analysis, and integrating commerce more fluidly. Aude Gandon, formerly of Nestlé, has been appointed as the company’s first Chief Digital and Marketing Officer to lead these efforts.

Financial Guidance:

The trailing 12-month (TTM) financial performance provides a clear view of the company’s operating health. Estée Lauder currently reports a free cash flow margin of approximately 6.4%, based on $948 million in free cash flow against $14.79 billion in revenue. The company’s TTM operating margin stands at 8.9%, reflecting improved cost discipline and a gradual rebound in global demand. Additionally, its latest twelve-month (LTM) operating cash flow margin is 15.1%, notably above the consumer-defensive industry median of 9.9%. While no formal top-line or margin forecasts have been disclosed, the company’s current financial trajectory indicates cautious recovery, supported by margin expansion and stable cash generation. Investors and analysts continue to monitor performance trends closely, particularly as the company navigates a normalization in post-COVID beauty demand across key markets.

Stock Outlook:

Our thesis for Estee Lauder might seem controversial, but we are not trading this stock and think that this stock will continue this 5-year dip as sales continue to weaken and the makeup industry continues to grow. It is very easy for famous influencers to come along and create there own makeup brand and take away more market share from the company. We understand that this comes at a time when Investor Michael Burry, famously known for betting against the housing bubble, has doubled his stake in Estée Lauder, raising his holding to 200,000 shares, now valued at $13.2 million. He seems to see a vote of confidence surrounding trade talks between US and China, which directly affects the brand, as well as overall consumer spending. We don’t see it. Organic net sales are forecast to decline between 8% and 9%, reflecting persistent demand softness, particularly in Asia-Pacific and travel retail. EPS guidance also reflects a significant decline versus previous years, highlighting margin pressure and cost challenges. We are not going to be trading the stock around earnings and think the Michael Burry hype of this company is overshadowing the continuing decline of the company.

As always, thanks for reading and hope that you have a great start to your week!

Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. The opinions expressed are based on publicly available information as of August 17, 2025, and reflect the author’s personal views at that time. Investing in stocks, including UNH, Bitcoin, Gold, SOFI, and all others mentioned within involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author and publisher are not responsible for any losses or damages arising from the use of this information.