Happy Thanksgiving week to all of our followers and welcome to offtheticker! A short week last week in the markets but a great little bounce off the 5% drop that we saw from the markets over the last couple of weeks. As we like to remind our readers, if your conviction on a certain sector or a certain stock is high, and nothing materially affects the stock, this may be a great time to add or just ride out the storm. This last drop after Nvidia earnings came from market uncertainty around rate cuts and this “AI Bubble” fear, but nothing materially changed. Nvidia once again beat earnings, the capital expenditure coming from these mag 7 companies is only rising, and we are still seeing the same bottlenecks that we previously have stated with power and build. On top of this, Trump hinted the idea of allowing Nvidia to even sell new chips to China, as well as another massive deal for AI in the middle east. Our thesis has not changed. As we do every week in our earnings report is report on stocks that are reporting earnings this week. This week we are going to go through a theme that we are noticing behind this earnings week, with two stocks set to report that all focus on Saas, which are Snowflake and Mongo DB.

In this week’s newsletter we wanted to focus on the two stocks that we think will give us a better insight into Saas, and how the use of Ai is helping companies monetize, a theme that we believe that we are entering into. For our readers who do not know what Saas is, this is a method of software delivery and licensing in which software is accessed, which creates reoccurring revenue through a subscription-based service. We believe that right now the market is in a period where the “AI Bubble” fears are fighting against the slow monetization of AI through the consumer base, and with Snowflake and Mongo DB set to report, we think that great earnings reports will only accelerate the whole AI trade, and with bad earnings reports only ramping up fears that we may be in a massive capital expenditure overspend that will never be able to be monetized to make back these returns. We believe that over the next couple of years major banks and retail investors will start to shift their focus from the picks and shovels operations of Nvidia and TSMC and focus on how this AI will be implemented into everyday life. At the end of our newsletter, we will also be highlighting Marvel Technologies, whose earnings this week should give us another great insight into the data center trade. We believe that if Marvel misses on earnings or forecast, it could be a sign that the data center hype train may be slowing down. There are many weeks where we like to use the earnings from companies we may not be invested in to further our investing thesis, and this is one of those weeks!

Snowflake

Snowflake is a cloud-based data warehousing company that enables organizations to store, manage, and analyze massive amounts of data with speed and flexibility. Snowflakes main driver of revenue is separating storage and compute, allowing customers to scale resources independently and pay only for what they use, a model that has helped it become one of the most widely adopted data platforms in modern enterprise technology. The company does this by leveraging AI to sort through this data. The company’s cloud acts as an ecosystem where businesses can securely share data across teams, partners, and applications in real time, reducing the need for complex infrastructure and costly transactions of data. We like to think of this as as the Google Drive of data. Snowflake has also expanded into broader data capabilities, which are a little confusing to readers but have seen tremendous success as of recent.

As a software-as-a-service (SaaS) provider, Snowflake delivers its platform entirely through the cloud, which means customers can onboard quickly without managing hardware or maintenance. Their primary buyers tend to be large comapanies, particularly data-driven businesses in finance, retail, healthcare, technology, and media, along with data engineering teams, analytics departments. Basically, whatever company needs to sort through massive amounts of data and share that data, Snowflake will help. By selling this service, the major factor that we like to look for when it comes to earnings is the recurring revenue that the company is driving.

After analyzing the recent quarterly earnings report for the company, and how we like to analyze all Saas companies is through their retention rate of revenue. If we see a meaningful decrease on this amount any time in the future, this may raise an alarm for us to look to sell. The company is also growing at a massive pace, with 32% revenue YOY, and although we expect this number to shrink as the company gets bigger, this is a great sign for the company’s stock.

Mongo DB

MongoDB is a modern database company best known for its document-oriented database that allows organizations to store and manage data in a far more flexible structure than traditional relational databases. Its flagship product, MongoDB Atlas, has become the industry’s fastest-growing managed database service, enabling customers to deploy, run, and scale MongoDB seamlessly across major cloud platforms like AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud. With enterprises increasingly moving to cloud-native architectures and applications that rely on high-volume, the company is now supporting everything from e-commerce platforms to financial systems to mobile apps. In my accounting job I am currently using MongoDB and have found it very useful in real world application.

As a SaaS-centric business, MongoDB generates a significant share of its revenue from MongoDB Atlas, its fully managed cloud service that removes the complexity of database deployment, security, and scaling. This model appeals to organizations that want to offload infrastructure management and focus on building applications rather than maintaining backend systems. The company is very similar to Snowflake, which we previously mentioned. The biggest thing that we will be taking a close look at along with the net revenue retention rate, is the growth rate of the company, which came in at 24% last quarter, which we expect to stay steady, and any revenue beat could send the stock soaring.

Marvell Technology

Marvell Technology is a U.S.-based semiconductor company that is a major supplier of the core silicon powering modern data centers, cloud platforms, and AI infrastructure. The company designs chips that move, store, process, and secure data at massive scale, spanning DPUs, custom ASICs, storage controllers, networking silicon, and high-speed optical interconnects. It has become a top partner to major cloud providers, including Amazon Web Services, and is winning a growing number of custom AI-chip design contracts across more than 10 large customers. Similar to the other names we have mentioned in the past like Nebius Group, recent earnings have been strong, with the data-center segment posting a 78% year-over-year revenue increase and driving the company’s broader growth. Most of the market, which includes both institutions and retail investors expect the total data-center silicon market to expand rapidly over the next several years, and all eyes are on the major names like Marvell to report another great earnings beat to keep the trade hot. If there is another strong performance from Marvell, we will be continuing to bet on the data center trade. As we have mentioned in a ton of our posts, the bottleneck of data centers and energy is still there.

Our eyes will be all over the Y/Y amounts, and to see if these percentages are lower or higher than the previous quarter based on the Y/Y amounts. The company’s presentation always includes the most important information, but it is also important to note that many companies like to only include their good numbers, so as accountants we like to take a look at the financial statements as a whole.

The information provided in this newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial, investment, or legal advice. I am not a licensed financial advisor, and the opinions expressed are my own. Any investments, trades, or financial decisions you make are at your own risk. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified professional before making financial decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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