Hello everyone, welcome back. This has been a crazy week in the market. Lots going on politically and with the economy. It is great to see that some of our stocks that we covered had a huge week this week. NBIS went back over $100, and Bloom Energy who we have covered is over about $150 now. If you have not already go check out our website to read our full thesis and analysis of some of these stocks. But lets jump into todays stock analysis Rocket Labs.

What They Do:

Rocket Lab is a space company that operates across the full satellite and launch ecosystem. It is not just a rocket provider, but a complete space infrastructure platform that designs launch vehicles, manufactures satellites and spacecraft components, and operates on-orbit missions. Through its Electron rocket, Rocket Lab dominates the dedicated small satellite launch market, serving commercial customers, governments, and national security missions. This positioning has made the company a major launch partner for defense and responsive space applications.

Beyond launch, Rocket Lab’s fastest growing and best margin segment is its Space Systems division. We did not know many things about how these things work so being able to look into this and learn about them was very interesting. Highly recommend sitting down and learning about how they operate. So the company manufactures satellite buses, solar panels, reaction wheels, radios, star trackers, flight software, and complete spacecraft used by major government agencies and commercial constellations. Rocket Lab supplies hardware to NASA, the U.S. Space Force, Amazon’s Kuiper network, and even competitors within the satellite industry, making it a big supplier for the space economy and key in the large scale satellite deployments.

Rocket Lab is also expanding into medium lift launch through its Neutron rocket, which will place it in direct competition with SpaceX’s Falcon 9 class vehicles for large constellation and national security missions. Also the company operates spacecraft and provides mission software and satellite as a service offerings, creating recurring revenue streams beyond launches. Rocket labs is a critical backbone of future space infrastructure, defense communications, and next generation satellite networks.

How they generate revenue:

Rocket Lab generates revenue primarily through two major business segments: Launch Services and Space Systems, with Space Systems now representing the majority of its growth and long-term value. Its launch business is mainly by the Electron rocket, which provides small satellite launches for government, defense, and commercial customers. Each launch generates several million dollars in revenue, and long-term launch service agreements with defense agencies and constellation operators provide recurring mission cadence. With the upcoming Neutron medium lift rocket, Rocket Lab is expanding into higher value launch contracts for large satellite constellations, national security payloads, and future space station missions, which will materially increase per-mission revenue and total addressable market.

The company’s most important revenue segment, is its Space Systems division, which designs and manufactures complete satellites, spacecraft components, and mission services. Rocket Lab sells satellite buses, solar arrays, reaction wheels, avionics, radios, star trackers, and turnkey spacecraft to NASA, the U.S. Space Force, Amazon’s Kuiper constellation, and commercial satellite operators worldwide. It also earns recurring revenue by operating satellites and providing mission management and “satellite-as-a-service” offerings. Large multi year government programs such as its recent missile defense satellite contracts with the U.S. Space Development Agency add hundreds of millions of dollars to backlog and create sustainability, predictable revenue streams, transforming Rocket Lab from a transactional launch provider into a vertically integrated aerospace infrastructure company.

The Numbers

Diving deeper into the numbers, there trailing 12 months of revenue sits around $554 million, which is up 52% YOY. The big thing that we are keeping an eye on however though is that they have over $1 billion in signed future contracts, including major defense and space system awards. The key future contract is the one that they signed with the U.S. Space Development Agency for $816 million to design and manufacture 18 advanced missile warning and tracking satellites for U.S. Space Force. However something key to note is that Rocket Labs still operates at a net loss as it reinvests heavily in growth, but there margins are improving. Some cool things to note is that they have launched over 200 satellites successfully to orbit. In 2025 they achieved 20 plus launches, including at least 18 successful orbital Electron missions.

Rocket Labs has around 2,600 employees worldwide and operate three launch pads. Two in New Zealand and one in Virginia and has opened a new launch for testing Neutron. They have 3 main launch vehicles. Electron, which is a small sat orbital launch vehicle. HASTE, which is a suborbital variant for hypersonic tech testing. Finally Neutron, which is still in development but is a medium lift reusable rocket targeting 2026.

Recent News

As said before in December of 2025 they announced their largest ever contract with U.S Space Development Agency to design and deliver 18 missile defense systems. If you take a look at their stock right now, you will see the moment that this announcement happened as their stock has been climbing an notable amount since then. Under this new deal, Rocket Lab will build satellites equipped with advanced missile warning, tracking, and defense sensors including infrared and space protection payloads using its Lightning spacecraft platform and vertically integrated manufacturing capabilities. The potential value could be around $1 billion with additional subsystem supply opportunities. This contract alone helps helps position them as a major defense contractor on major space systems, rather than just a launch provider.

Financially, the award significantly boosts Rocket Lab’s backlog and defense revenue visibility. Combined with a prior SDA award worth about $515 million for the Tranche 2 Transport Layer-Beta satellites, the company now holds over $1.3 billion in satellite contracts from the SDA alone. This really strengths investor and analyst confidence and we think that even more potential contracts could happen as they create better products in the coming years.

Competitors:

Something big to think about in this industry is the competition. The aerospace sector is very competitive, as in Rocket Labs case they face rivals in both the launch services and the space systems manufacturing. The main competitor though is SpaceX, which has the biggest global launch volume with its Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy vehicles. SpaceX’s cost efficient reusable rockets, massive launch cadence, and expansive Starship development give it a significant market edge, forcing smaller launch providers to be different or focus on more of niche segment. Other U.S. launch competitors are Firefly Aerospace, which is delveoping its Alpha vehicle for small to medium payloads, and other companies like Stoke Space and Relativity Space that are building next generation reusable boosters aimed at medium lift markets similar to Rocket Lab’s upcoming Neutron rocket. Additionally, established players like United Launch Alliance (ULA) with its Vulcan Centaur system and Blue Origin’s New Glennseek to go more for larger national security, and commercial launch contracts.

How The Space X IPO could Actually Help Rocket Labs

We are sure that you have seen in the news that SpaceX is somewhat likely to IPO in 2026 at some point. This would act a powerful tool for Rocket Lab rather than a competitive threat. Lets explain why, whenever SpaceX lists publicly, potentially at a valuation in the hundreds of billions of dollars, it will reset how Wall Street values space infrastructure companies, forcing investors to apply real industrial and defense grade valuation multiples to this sector. In this environment, Rocket Lab becomes the only publicly traded, vertically integrated company that closely mirrors SpaceX’s model across launch, satellite manufacturing, and on orbit services. Again think about it, it would most likely trigger a broad sector re-rating which could be good for Rocket Labs.

Just as importantly, a public SpaceX would accelerate government and defense agencies push to diversify suppliers and avoid dependence on a single provider for critical orbital and missile-defense infrastructure. That dynamic strongly favors Rocket Lab, which is already winning large prime contracts from U.S. defense agencies and building out Falcon class capabilities with its Neutron rocket. Also the market pressures would encourage SpaceX to outsource more hardware and satellite manufacturing, areas where Rocket Lab is already a proven supplier. Together, these forces could increase Rocket Lab’s contract flow, expand its addressable market, and reinforce its position as the leading “second pillar” of the modern space economy making a SpaceX IPO a potential net positive company for Rocket Lab’s long term growth.Space X is expected to IPO at around an estimated $250-350B valuation. Rocket labs sits at around 40-50B in Market Cap, so again just something to consider. Do we know for a fact that this will happen no, but we are considering it as a good thing when SpaceX does go public.

Thesis:

As said above we think that whenever SpaceX does go public it may be good for Rocket Labs and their valuation. More importantly SpaceX will need to outsource some hardware and satellite manufacturing. Something else that we are considering with this company is they could be a company that could handle space based data centers. Not because it plans to operate massive server farms in orbit but because of where it sits in the space infrastructure sector. The idea behind space data centers is really orbital edge computing, which is processing data closer to where satellites collect it instead of sending everything back to Earth. This matters most for defense, intelligence, communication etc, which is where Rocket labs comes in. Processing some of the data in orbit can reduce delays, lower transmissions costs, and improve responsiveness, especially for national security applications. This also the very early stages to actually make this happen. There are no plans and is not functional yet to make this happen. This is just some optional upside, as the real reason we personally like Rocket Labs is through their new products that are in development, the potential SpaceX IPO, and the major contracts they have signed for over 1 billion dollars. It is hard to know what a good price is as it has climbed recently but we see them as a small portion of our portfolio for a long term investment.

This newsletter is provided for informational and educational purposes only and reflects the personal opinions of the authors. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, nor is it a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security or financial instrument.

The content is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, personalized investment advice. Any market commentary, outlooks, or examples referenced are general in nature and may not be suitable for all investors.

All views expressed are subject to change without notice. Forward-looking statements, projections, or expectations are inherently uncertain and are based on assumptions that may not prove accurate. Actual outcomes may differ materially.

The authors may hold positions in securities discussed and may change such positions at any time without notice. Readers should conduct their own independent research and consult with a licensed financial professional before making any investment decisions. The authors make no representations or warranties regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information and accept no liability for any losses arising from its use.

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