New to OffTheTicker? TSLA, HOOD, BTC Picks to Grow Your Money

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Welcome!

A big shoutout to our 50 new subscribers—happy you’re joining the @OffTheTicker crew! As this is many of your first time with us: we deliver insights on what’s moving markets and why it matters to you, plus our top stock and crypto picks (like TSLA, HOOD, and BTCI this week) with clear analysis to help you invest smarter. It does not matter what level of an investor you are, we are here to try and help.

Starting June 22, the newsletter will follow this structure:

Sunday Upcoming Earnings: Weekly highlights of upcoming earnings, with analysis of top stocks to watch and potential investment opportunities.

Mid week Analysis: In-depth stock analysis, covering a single stock or sharing investment strategies, from beginner tips to advanced trading techniques.

Friday Recap: Every Friday we will be providing a weekly recap of market events and key news to monitor moving forward.

This week, to start the newsletter off with a combination of it all, we’re diving into trade talks, conflicts, inflation, and crypto surges—plus, some of our favorite picks like Tesla, Robinhood, and BTCI.

How This Week’s Market News Impact You?

1.  U.S.-EU Trade Talks Face Tariff Deadline Pressure

   • The U.S. is negotiating with the EU to avoid a tariff hike from 10% to 50% on $600 billion in EU imports, set to kick in by July 9 unless a deal is reached. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested a possible extension for countries negotiating “in good faith,” but Trump’s recent threats to set unilateral tariff rates have markets on edge.

   • Impact on You: Higher tariffs could spike prices for European goods like cars, wine, or luxury brands, hitting your wallet for everyday goods. For example, a 50% tariff could make a $50,000 BMW cost thousands more. If talks succeed, you might dodge these price hikes, freeing up cash for discretionary spending or investments. However, ongoing uncertainty could keep costs volatile.

   • Good time to Invest?: Stay clear of consumer discretionary stocks tied to EU imports, like auto retailers (e.g., AutoNation, down 5% this month) or luxury goods (LVMH). Wait for a clearer trade deal before jumping in, as tariff risks could further depress these sectors.

Inflation Stays Steady, But Watch Your Bills

1. The May Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise 0.2% month-over-month, with core CPI (excluding food/energy) up 0.3%. This means inflation’s stable but not shrinking.

   • Impact on You: Steady inflation keeps your rent, gas, and egg prices high—egg costs are still up 10% from last year. If the Fed holds rates steady (likely at the June 17-18 meeting), loans for cars or homes stay expensive.

   • Good Time to Invest?: Inflation-resistant assets like gold (up 3% this week via ETFs like Anglogold Ashanti) or dividend stocks are safer bets in the short term. Start small if you’re new—$50 in an ETF can diversify your risk.

Iran-Israel Conflict Escalates, Spiking Oil Prices

Israel and Iran have entered a fifth day of direct military conflict, with Israel striking Iran’s nuclear facilities and military targets, including a fuel depot in Tehran, while Iran retaliated with missile attacks on Israeli cities like Tel Aviv and Haifa. Oil prices surged 7% last week and continued climbing, with Brent crude up nearly 4% on Sunday due to fears of supply disruptions, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil point. However, markets stabilized slightly on Monday as reports surfaced that Iran may seek to restart nuclear talks, easing fears of a broader war.

Impact on You: Rising oil prices are most likely outcome, increasing costs for gas, heating, and everyday goods like groceries and air travel. For example, a 7% oil price spike could push average U.S. gas prices from $3.15 to $3.37 per gallon, adding $8-$10 to a 40-gallon fill-up. If the Strait of Hormuz faces disruptions, prices could climb further. On the flip side, de-escalation talks could stabilize costs, leaving more room for savings or discretionary spending. The conflict’s volatility also risks broader inflation, which could delay Federal Reserve rate cuts, keeping loan and mortgage rates elevated.

Good Time to Invest?: Avoid energy stocks like ExxonMobil or Chevron for now, as oil price volatility remains high and could reverse if diplomacy prevails. Defensive sectors like consumer staples (e.g., Procter & Gamble, despite recent tariff pressures) or utilities offer safer bets during geopolitical uncertainty. We are waiting to see how it progresses but will keep dollar averaging in our favorite ETFs for the meanwhile.

Stock & Crypto Picks: TSLA, HOOD, BTCI

Here’s our take on three of our favorite stocks, with our quick analysis and why we think they are the best long term play.

Tesla (TSLA): Closed at $326.09 after a 5.7% jump last Tuesday, but it’s down 21% in 2025.

• Tesla’s self-driving tests in Austin are promising, but a 2023 crash video and Musk’s feud with Trump (over EV tax credits) spook investors. Wells Fargo predicts a 63% drop due to weak Q1 deliveries (down 13% YoY).

• Our Take: Hold off unless you’re a risk-taker. Wait for robotaxi launch news (June 12) or tariff clarity. If you’re in, set a stop-loss at $300 to limit losses.

• More to come in an upcoming newsletter about our forward outlook on Tesla! Hint: Its not cars!

Robinhood (HOOD): Up 15% YTD, trading at ~$73.

• Why It Matters: Robinhood’s commission-free platform is perfect for everyday investors. Its crypto trading volume spiked with Bitcoin’s rally, and retail traders are scooping up volatile stocks like TSLA. For you, HOOD’s app makes investing accessible, but its reliance on meme stock hype adds risk.

• Recent news affecting the stock: As of Friday 6/6, the much anticipated adding of Robinhood to the S&P did not happen, leaving Robinhood bulls confused, and leaving the stock down almost 4 percent in after market trading.

• Our Take: A solid pick for new investors. We believe Robinhood on the S&P is almost inevitable, and it is coming sooner rather then later. This could catapult the stock in the short term, and set it up for long term success.

• One of our favorite things about this app is that 80% of the users are below 35 years old.

• More to come on an upcoming newsletter about the technicals and forward outlook on Robinhood!

BTCI 

• Bitwise Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BTCI): A NEOS-managed ETF that provides exposure to Bitcoin via futures and a covered call strategy, seeking high monthly income with a 28% annualized distribution yield ($252/month on a $10,000 investment, 96% tax-efficient return of capital); it’s available on brokers like Robinhood but carries volatility risks due to Bitcoin’s price swings and low liquidity.

The BTCI can be a bit confusing since it’s an ETF, and its structure is admittedly complex.

• BTCI in simple terms takes the prices of the top 10 cyptos, weights them by their market size (bigger coins like Bitcoin count more), and creates a single number to track their performance.

• Essentially is less of a risk than a single crytocurrency but goes up and down with the other crytocurrencies.

• What sets this apart is its dividend payouts, delivering a 12% annual return last year—far outpacing any High-Yield Savings Account (HYSA), which is why we’re excited about this ETF!

Thank you for following along! We’re thrilled about our new structure kicking off next week, designed to help us find a steady rhythm for investing together!

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Note: OffTheTicker provides general information and opinions on markets, stocks, and ETFs for educational purposes only. We are not financial advisers, and our content does not constitute personalized investment advice. Investing involves risks, including potential loss of principal. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. OffTheTicker is not responsible for any financial losses or decisions made based on our content. All data is sourced as of June 17, 2025, and subject to change.

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