Market Recap 9/13

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Welcome back to another weekly Friday Edition of OffTheTicker! Sorry about the delay in this post, as we are very busy with our full-time jobs and some personal things. Lots of things to recap this week. We’re excited to walk you through the key market news and developments from the past few days. More importantly, we’ll break down what these events mean, how we have profited off of these calls we have made and share how we’re adjusting our investments in response. This week we are breaking down three of our favorite stories and from three recent calls that we have made.

Robinhood Set to Join the S&P 500:

Robinhood Markets is officially set to be added to the S&P 500 Index on September 22, 2025, replacing Caesars Entertainment in the roster. The move comes as part of the quarterly rebalancing by S&P Dow Jones Indices. This inclusion is a significant milestone for Robinhood, not just because of the prestige of being part of the benchmark, but because it signals that the company has met key financial and market criteria required of S&P 500 members. We think this will be a great way for the company to grow and have market cap continuously added based off index investors.

Following the announcement, Robinhood’s stock jumped sharply, approximately 15% in one trading session. Year-to-date the shares have more than tripled, climbing from well under $40 to over $115 per share. We first gave our subscribers an annoucement about our investment back around 65$ This inclusion could boost Robinhood’s profile, institutional credibility, and liquidity. Over the longer term, being part of the S&P 500 tends to reduce perceived risk in the eyes of many investors, lower borrowing costs, and potentially make future financing or expansion easier.

We first discussed Robinhood when it was at just 65$ a share, and the addition to the S&P just adds to our conviction on how well this stock could perform over the next 10 years. We have constantly stated that the way that the company has been handling growth and expansion has been remarkable and it is taking the financial industry by storm. They keep pushing the limits and with this administration being so focused on growth over regulation we could continue to see this occur until there is a large shift in politics in this country on the federal level.

Nebius AI and their Massive Deal with Microsoft:

Nebius Group recently inked a landmark agreement with Microsoft to provide GPU-based AI infrastructure from its new data center in Vineland, New Jersey. The initial value is $17.4 billion over five years, with an option for Microsoft to increase usage and push that up toward $19.4 billion. The deal is structured so that Microsoft will begin taking capacity later this year, and Nebius will finance much of the needed infrastructure expansion via a mix of cash flow, debt, and equity offerings. When the announcement came out, Nebius shares leapt by roughly 45-50% in one trading session, touching record highs. Year-to‐date the stock had already more than tripled, and this deal provided fresh fuel for the rally.

While the headline number $19.4B alone is enormous, the real value to Nebius is in how that translates into revenue and future growth. Nebius recently reported Q2 2025 revenues of around $105 million, representing a 625% year-over-year increase. They also forecast an annualized run rate for revenues of $900 million to $1.1 billion by end of 2025.

We think that the deal with Microsoft is just opening a door for other companies to get involved, and there is room for Nebius to sign other similar large contracts, especially in the growing AI cloud infrastructure market. When a company like Microsoft gets involved in a deal of this size, it is assumed by the market that they have done a large amount of due diligence in making sure that the company they are pouring billions into can deliver exactly what they want, which is powerful computing power. This revenue will allow Nebius to grow to increase capital expenditure to secure other deals. If it can deliver the capacity, scale operations efficiently, and secure additional clients, its future cash flows could justify a significantly higher valuation than what is being priced in now. Investors seem to be betting that the Microsoft deal is a foundation, not the ceiling, which is why many believe that even after the stock jump, there's still upside. Currently we do not have a price target for Nebius but to say this company will double or triple over the next couple of years is an understatement. It will be interesting to see how much current resources this deal will take and if the company could even support another large deal right now, but the offers will be flowing in over the next couple of years, and we are hoping that they could open up their bottleneck and continue to explode.

As you could see from our recent analysis of Nebius, we said that this company would begin to add partnerships and there could not be a bigger company that could have possibly created this partnership. We are hoping to see companies like Google, Tesla, and others begin to get into the mix and send this company soaring.

Oracle Reports Earnings:

Oracle just delivered its fiscal Q1 2026 results, showing total revenue of $14.9 billion, up about 12% year-over-year. Their cloud segment came in at $7.2 billion, growing 28%. With the cloud infrastructure component up even more sharply. Oracle also revealed a massive jump in Remaining Performance Obligations to $455 billion, up 359% from the same quarter a year ago, which is a key metric showing contracted revenue that the company has not yet realized. This is the number that likely sent the stock soaring and is a massive positive for the future when a company already has so much revenue lined up that has not yet been recognized on the books. This is why we think the response we saw was actually warranted, the stock exploded upward roughly 29-36% in a single trading day after the earnings and guidance beat headline expectations. The strength came not just from what had already been achieved, but from Oracle’s forward outlook, especially its forecasted growth in cloud infrastructure and the scale of its contract backlog. Investors clearly rewarded the clarity and strength of the cloud/AI demand story.

As any stock that sees a 50% gain in a single day, we thought it was smart to take some gains and look to move elsewhere while still holding a nice size position in Oracle, and with the stock being valued right where we think it deserves to be valued, we dont see a problem with doing this.

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