Welcome back to another weekly Friday Edition of OffTheTicker! Lots of big earnings this week, we have lots to talk about. We’re excited to walk you through the key market news and developments from the past few days. More importantly, we’ll break down what these events mean—and share how we’re adjusting our investments in response.

We also wanted to bring to everyone’s attention our referral program at the bottom of the page. For just two referrals to your friends and family you will receive an email that grants you access to our LIVE STOCK TRACKER, where we will be logging every stock that we will be talking about on this newsletter, which will allow you to stay up to date and never miss a beat even during busy work weeks.

_{Jay Powell Holding Steady}

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has held firm in not cutting interest rates, signaling a cautious approach despite mounting pressure from markets and some policymakers. The Fed’s key concern remains inflation, which, although it has come down from its peak, still hovers above the central bank's 2% target. Powell has repeatedly emphasized the importance of seeing "greater confidence" that inflation is sustainably moving downward before considering any rate reductions. His stance reflects a desire to avoid prematurely loosening monetary policy, which could risk reigniting price pressures and undermining the progress made so far.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, nonfarm payroll employment rose by just 73,000 in July, a sharp slowdown compared to earlier months. Revisions were striking May and June job listings were lowered by 258,000 in aggregate. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, while job growth was concentrated almost entirely in health care and social assistance, with the federal government shedding positions –12,000 jobs.

The announcement released early this morning resulted in the first decline exceeding 1% in nearly 25 days, representing one of the longest periods of S&P 500 stability in recorded history. It is our assessment that a reduction in interest rates is overdue. Indicators suggest that inflation is decelerating, and the unfavorable employment report released on Friday morning further underscores the potential necessity for a rate cut to stimulate the labor market and foster economic growth. Such a monetary policy adjustment would likely influence home buying, facilitate the expansion of private enterprises, and generally enhance borrowing conditions within the private sector, as well as support the refinancing of existing debt.

_{SOFI Recap:}

As we predicted, SoFi delivered a solid earnings beat in Q2 2025, reporting revenue growth and raising its full-year guidance, just as we anticipated in our earlier analysis. The company showed strong momentum in its core fintech services, and the raised guidance reflected confidence in continued expansion. However, despite the upbeat earnings report, SoFi surprised the market with a late after-hours announcement of a secondary share offering. This move introduced additional shares into the market, which led to some downward pressure on the stock price following the initial rally. While the dilution was disappointing for some investors, it’s important to understand that such capital raises are often used to fund strategic growth initiatives or strengthen the balance sheet. Given SoFi’s aggressive push into areas like cryptocurrency trading and expanding its product ecosystem, this share offering could fuel longer-term value creation. In short, we still see SoFi’s earnings beat as validation of its trajectory, and while the secondary offering introduced short-term volatility, it may ultimately support the company’s growth ambitions and innovation roadmap.

_{Microsoft Strong Earnings}

Background on MSFT Q4 2025 Earnings Report:

Microsoft closed out its fiscal year with another blockbuster quarter, reporting Q4 FY 2025 results that beat Wall Street expectations across the board. Revenue jumped 18% year‑over‑year to $76.4 billion, while earnings per share came in at $3.65, handily topping estimates. Net income surged 24% to $27.2 billion, powered largely by the continued momentum in Azure, which grew 39% in the quarter and crossed $75 billion in annual sales for the first time. Beyond the cloud business, Microsoft saw steady contributions from Microsoft 365, LinkedIn, and gaming—demonstrating its ability to balance high‑growth segments with dependable recurring revenue streams.

What we love about MSFT: 

Microsoft remains one of the most strategically positioned companies in the world, sitting at the intersection of cloud computing, AI, and enterprise software. Azure is the engine driving the story, with Copilot and other AI tools now surpassing 100 million monthly users. The company is reinvesting aggressively—guiding $30 billion in capex next quarter to expand AI and data center infrastructure—ensuring it stays ahead in the AI arms race. At the same time, legacy businesses like Office, Windows, and LinkedIn provide cash flow stability, while newer verticals like gaming and Activision Blizzard integration offer optionality for future growth. Simply put, Microsoft has a rare mix of innovation, scale, and resilience that makes it hard to match.

How we are trading MSFT: 

We started building a position in Microsoft around $520–$530 following the earnings release, leaning into the long‑term AI and cloud thesis while staying mindful of valuation risk. At roughly 29× forward earnings, the stock isn’t cheap, and headline risks—such as OpenAI exploring cloud rivals or broader macro volatility—could trigger short‑term pullbacks. But Microsoft is the definition of a market anchor: dominant, cash‑rich, and at the center of the tech infrastructure buildout of the decade. We’re holding it as a core long‑term position, expecting Azure and AI to keep driving growth while dividends and buybacks help smooth out any bumps along the way. We remain bullish on MSFT, and with the market pulling back today, we view this dip as an opportunity to add—even after the stock’s significant recent gains.

_{GRAB Earnings}

On Wednesday, we shared an analysis on Grab highlighting why we see it as a compelling long‑term growth story. While the stock price didn’t fully reflect the strength of this past week’s earnings, the results themselves were impressive. We remain confident in Grab as a speculative, long‑term play with significant upside potential.

Background on Grab’s Q2 2025 Earnings Report:

Grab reported its second‑quarter 2025 results on July 30, posting revenue of $819 million, a 23% year‑over‑year increase (about 19% on a constant‑currency basis), beating consensus estimates of approximately $811 million. The company swung to a $20 million net profit, compared to a $68 million loss a year ago, and generated $109 million in adjusted EBITDA, a record high. Earnings per share came in at $0.01, matching analyst expectations but not exceeding them

What We Love About GRAB:

First, revenue and profitability are trending in the right direction: the shift to positive net income and growing adjusted EBITDA demonstrates tightening cost structure and business discipline. The On‑Demand GMV grew ~21% YoY to $5.4 billion, reflecting strong demand for ride‑hailing and delivery services in its core Southeast Asia markets . Second, financial services (loans, deposits) are ramping up—loan disbursements jumped ~44% and Digibank deposits hit $1.5 billion, positioning Grab to monetize constistent growth in fintech infrastructure. Third, despite macro pressures across the region, Grab's platform remains resilient in Indonesia and beyond—evidence of a defensible foothold as Southeast Asia’s leading super-app.

How We Are Trading GRAB:

We’ve initiated a position near ~$4.90 post‑earnings, capitalizing on momentum and Grab’s pivot to profitability while acknowledging exposure to regional macro risk and intense competition from players like Gojek and DiDi. The stock dropped ~7.5% after the report, likely due to matched EPS guidance and cautious revenue outlook, yet we believe that market offers opportunity. At a valuation well below our modeled intrinsic value of ~$6.00, the risk/reward favors disciplined accumulation with a very similar view to most analysts. We’re treating GRAB as a long term growth-plus-profit opportunity, leveraging its super‑app scale, improving margins, and expanding fintech presence as key drivers ahead.

The market pulled back today, which created a great window for those who’ve been sitting on extra cash. We used the dip to add to several of our positions—including AMD, GRAB, NVIDIA, HOOD, AMZN, and META. While many investors dread red days, we view them as prime opportunities to put money to work and scoop up quality names at better prices.

We’ll be releasing our full PORTFOLIO this Sunday, giving you a clear look at how we trade and the timing behind our buys. As always, feel free to reach out via email with any questions you might have.

Note: OffTheTicker provides general information and opinions on markets, stocks, and ETFs for educational purposes only. We are not financial advisers, and our content does not constitute personalized investment advice. Investing involves risks, including potential loss of principal. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. OffTheTicker is not responsible for any financial losses or decisions made based on our content. All data is sourced as of August 1st, 2025, and subject to change.

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.